The FT's crack corps of pundits had great success in predicting the events of 2007. Once again, therefore, we have urged them to throw caution to the wind and risk humiliation in the pursuit of glory.

对于2007年大事，英国《金融时报》预测专家的成功率相当高。因此，我们再次敦促他们将谨慎置之脑后，为了荣誉甘冒蒙羞的风险，预测2008年大事。
Last time, Edward Luce foresaw Barack Obama's political trajectory with near-clairvoyant accuracy, beaten only by Christopher Brown-Humes, who called the turn in the credit cycle. Give that man a $1m bonus. John Thornhill predicted Nicolas Sarkozy's victory in France's presidential race and David Gardner said there would be no US attack on Iran.

上一次，爱德华卢斯(Edward Luce)以近乎“千里眼”的精度，准确预见了巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)的政治轨迹，仅次于克里斯托弗布朗-休姆斯(Christopher Brown-Humes)对于信贷周期将出现拐点的预言。给他100万美元的奖金吧！约翰桑希尔(John Thornhill)预测到尼古拉斯萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)将赢得法国总统大选，而大卫加德纳(David Gardner)则预言美国不会袭击伊朗。
Less successful was a prediction that the dollar would remain strong, but the worst prediction of 2007 was fortun-ately cut at the last minute. I had confidently forecast a New Zealand victory over France in last October's Rugby World Cup. Robin Harding
不太成功的是有关美元将保持坚挺的预测，但幸运的是，在最后一分钟，这个最糟糕的、对2007年的预测被删掉了。我曾满怀信心地预测，新西兰会在去年10月的橄榄球世界杯上(Rugby World Cup)击败法国。

Will China revalue the renminbi? No. The Chinese authorities will continue to permit measured appreciation of their currency against the US dollar, but will not allow the big one-off upward adjustment that the country's trade partners call for.

中国人民币将升值吗？不会。中国政府将继续令人民币兑美元汇率有序上升，但不会像中国的贸易伙伴所呼吁的那样，让人民币出现一次性大幅升值调整。

Faster appreciation against the dollar is unlikely in 2008, despite growing pressure from abroad and another jump in China's foreign currency reserves, perhaps to about $2,000bn. The government treasures the fast growth a cheap currency brings and believes it is able to manage the inflationary consequences. Ultimately, China will have to allow faster appreciation. But only a big jump in the rate of inflation would force the government's hand in 2008.

尽管海外压力逐渐加大，且中国外汇储备再次大幅增长（可能已增至2万亿美元左右），但在2008年，人民币兑美元不大可能加速升值。中国政府非常看重廉价货币带来的快速增长。他们认为，他们能够应对通胀影响。最终，中国将不得不允许人民币加速升值。但如果通胀率在2008年大幅上升，将束缚住政府的手脚。
The best Olympics ever in Beijing?
北京奥运会是否会成为有史以来最好的奥运会？
Given China's vast investment of political and fiscal capital, they had better be. Much of Beijing has been rebuilt in the past decade. Venues such as the "Bird's Nest" stadium and "Water Cube" pool are stunning architectural feats. Popular enthusiasm and 7m cheap tickets mean the Games will also be the best-attended. Even competitors in minority sports such as rowing will bask in the attention of large crowds.
鉴于中国进行的巨大政治和财政投资，它最好是有史以来最好的奥运会。过去10年，北京大部分城区都进行了重建。“鸟巢”体育馆和“水立方”游泳馆等场馆是令人瞠目结舌的建筑壮举。民众的热情和700万张廉价票意味着，北京奥运会还将是上座率最高的奥运会。即使赛艇等小项目的参赛者，也会吸引大量观众的注意。
But the worry for organizers is the sheer level of expectations for an event billed as a coming-out party for the world's most populous nation. Being merely the "best yet" will not be enough: anything less than perfection will disappoint.

但组织者的担忧在于，这届奥运会被视为这个世界上人口最多的国家首次举办国际盛会，人们对此预期非常高。仅仅做到“有史以来最好”还不够：任何一点不完美都会令人失望。
Will the credit crunch continue?
信贷紧缩还将持续吗？
Yes. The good news is that banks and policymakers are now taking the necessary action. But even if the problems remain limited to subprime mortgage debt - and that is a big "if" - it will take several more months for losses to work through the system. After all, these subprime losses are extremely large, running at $200bn or more. And as they hit the balance sheets of banks, financial institutions will face pressure to cut lending in 2008.

是的。好消息是，银行和决策者正在采取必要的措施。但即使问题仍然局限于次级抵押贷款债务领域（这是个可能性非常小的假设），全球金融系统仍再需要数月时间来消化损失。毕竟，次贷损失极其惨重，超过2000亿美元。而且，由于这场危机打击了银行的资产负债表，因此，金融机构在2008年将面临减少放贷的压力。

But the really big uncertainty is whether further contagion will occur. Defaults are now emerging on other classes of mortgage, as well as credit card and commercial property debt, and this could create another $200bn of losses. The nightmare scenario, however, is one in which risky companies start to default on their loans. Thankfully, there is no sign of this occurring yet. But if the US economy goes into recession, the chance of corporate defaults will rise - which could produce more losses for banks, and thus a second chapter in the credit crunch story.
但真正重大的不确定性在于，这场危机是否将继续传染。其它级别的抵押贷款，以及信用卡和商业地产债务的违约率也在上升，这可能再导致2000亿美元的损失。但噩梦般的情形是，风险较高的公司开始拖欠债务。谢天谢地，现在还没有发生这种情况的迹象。但如果美国经济衰退，公司拖欠债务的几率就会上升——这可能给银行造成更多损失，进而揭开信贷紧缩故事的第二篇章。
. . . causing a bear market in equities?
……导致股市熊市？
Stock markets may well fall in 2008 from their levels at the end of this year, but they would need to drop 20 per cent from their recent peaks for there to be a full-blown bear market. The first half of the year will be challenging, as equities continue to be hit by credit market ructions, fears of recession in the US and UK and downward revisions to earnings forecasts.
2008年，全球股市很可能会低于去年年底的水平，但要想进入全面熊市，它们需要从最近的高点下跌20%。由于信贷市场动荡将继续冲击股市，加之投资者担心英美经济衰退和企业调低盈利预测，今年上半年将十分艰难。
But there are positives, too: the prospect of lower interest rates in the US and UK, mergers and acquisitions act-ivity supported by strong corporate balance sheets, and further moves by sovereign wealth funds to bail out banks and companies in distress. Equity valuations, relative to bonds, should also be supportive. These factors should be enough to allow equities to weather the credit gloom - and they may even make modest gains over the year as a whole.

但也存在一些积极因素：美国和英国的降息前景，企业强大的资产负债表支撑的并购活动，以及主权财富基金进一步为陷入困境的银行和公司纾困。相对于债券，股票的估值也应该是支撑因素。这些因素应该足以让股市挺过这场信贷危机，而整体而言，上市公司甚至可能在这一年里实现温和收益。
Will Citigroup break itself up?
花旗集团将分拆吗？
No. Vikram Pandit, Citigroup's new chief executive, may be tempted to split up the bank assembled by Sandy Weill. Citigroup's problems in 2007, which led to the departure of Chuck Prince, have raised questions as to whether it is simply too big to manage.
不会。花旗新任首席执行官潘伟迪(Vikram Pandit)可能很想拆分这家由桑迪威尔(Sandy Weill)“组装”的银行集团。花旗集团在2007年爆发的问题导致了查克普林斯(Chuck Prince)的下台，还引发了一个问题：花旗是否规模过大，难以管理？
Mr Pandit is an investment banker by training, as is Sir Win Bischoff, Citi's chairman. Both of them know they might be able to drive up Citi's shares in the short term by spinning off its investment bank. But there are obstacles: it would have to raise more capital, and tax would be an issue. As important, Mr Pandit will realise that, if Citi did not exist, someone would be trying to invent it: financial companies are consolidating. Citi's problem is not that it exists but that it does not work well enough.

与花旗董事长温比肖夫爵士(Sir Win Bischoff)一样，潘伟迪也是一位科班的投资银行家。两人都知道，通过拆分花旗的投资银行业务，自己或许能够在短期内提振花旗的股价。但他们也面临障碍：花旗必须加大融资，而税负也将是个问题。同样重要的是，潘伟迪将认识到，如果花旗不复存在，一些人可能会试图创建另一个花旗：金融企业正在整合。花旗的问题不是它的存在，而在于其运作不够好。
Will Hillary Clinton be the next US president?
希拉里克林顿是否将成为下任美国总统？
Most likely, yes. Barring a remarkable upset, the Democratic nominee will win the election, so great is the unpopularity of this administration - and Mrs Clinton will be the nominee.
最可能的答案是：是的。鉴于本届美国政府的民意支持率颇低，除非发生重大意外，否则，这位民主党总统候选人将赢得大选——当然，希拉里克林顿将赢得民主党的总统候选人提名。
Barack Obama's surge in Iowa and New Hampshire shows voters grow to like him more the better they know him. Americans want a change, and he is fresh. Also, there are signs of Clinton fatigue. For all her talents, the former First Lady is not new - and leaning on her husband's popularity whenever her campaign misfires underlines the fact.
巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州的大胜表明，随着选民越发了解他，他们也越来越喜欢他。美国人喜欢改变，而他是一个新鲜的面孔。此外，有一些迹象表明希拉里克林顿已是强弩之末。尽管她才华横溢，但这位前第一夫人并非新面孔；并且，只要其竞选活动失势，她便会借助其丈夫的人气，也突显了这一事实。
Even so, Mrs Clinton's grip on the nom-ination is tighter than the Obama bounce suggests. If the nomination contest were fought primary by primary Mr Obama might be favourite to win - but it is not. In February the elections arrive in a rush, and the candidates are spread thin. Mrs Clinton will not give up if she loses the first two votes: her drive and ambition forbid it. Her lead among Democrats is big and wellentrenched. Overturning it is likely to be beyond even Mr Obama.

即便如此，相对于奥巴马支持率的回升，希拉里克林顿更有希望获得总统候选人提名。如果总统候选人提名之争是一对一的较量，奥巴马或许会赢，但情况并非如此。2月份，大选将拉开帷幕，而候选人之间势均力敌。如果希拉里克林顿在头两轮投票中失利，她不会因此放弃：她的干劲和野心不允许她这么做。她在民主党中地位颇高，并且根深蒂固。奥巴马可能无力推翻其领导地位。