Will there be a US recession?

美国经济会出现衰退吗？

The US will skate along the brink of recession in early 2008, but should avoid tipping over the brink, in part owing to continued strong exports to the rest of the world. Nonetheless, the economy will not bounce back quickly and will instead endure a protracted period of weak growth, during which time it will be vulnerable to any further economic shocks.

2008年初，美国将濒临衰退边缘，但应该不会坠下悬崖，部分原因是美国对全球其它国家的出口保持强劲。然而，美国经济不会迅速反弹，将经历一段很长的增长乏力期。在此期间，任何进一步的经济冲击都很容易对美国经济构成打击。

House prices will continue to fall nationwide, with big declines in California and Florida. However, the negative wealth effect on consumers will be partly offset by adequate earnings growth in a resilient jobs market. Unemployment will edge up, but not by much. The Federal Reserve may end up cutting interest rates by more than it thought it would, but its ability to do so will be constrained by inflation risk, especially if oil and food prices remain high or move higher.
美国全国的房价将继续下跌，加州和佛州的跌幅将非常巨大。然而，有弹性的就业市场的巨大收益增幅将部分抵消房价下跌对消费者的负面财富效应。失业率将缓慢上升，但增幅不是很大。美联储(Fed)的降息幅度可能最终超过预期，但其大幅降息的能力将受到通胀风险的限制，特别是如果石油和食品价格仍处于高位或进一步走高的情况下。
And what about Vladimir Putin?
弗拉基米尔普京将何去何从？
Mr Putin has chosen Dmitry Medvedev, his close associate and deputy prime minister, as his candidate for the March presidential election. Given Mr Putin’s personal popularity and the Kremlin’s backing, Mr Medvedev will win by a mile. He will then make Mr Putin his prime minister.
普京已选择其亲密伙伴、俄罗斯副总理德米特里梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)作为自己的接班人，参加3月份的总统大选。鉴于普京个人的声望和克里姆林宫的支持，梅德韦杰夫将大获全胜。届时他将任命普京为他的总理。
At this point, parliament, dominated by Mr Putin’s United Russia party, may well vote to change the constitution to transfer power from the president to the prime minister. But even if it does not, real power will remain in Mr Putin’s hands as he is the focus of almost all his administration’s public popularity. However, he is not in a position to become a dictator: power is divided among competing groups of senior Kremlin officials, who owe their allegiance to the president but not their absolute loyalty.

因此，普京领导的统一俄罗斯党(United Russia)所控制的国家杜马可能会投票支持修改宪法，将权力从总统转移至总理。然而，即便没有修改宪法，实际权力仍将掌握在普京手中，因为他是现任政府几乎所有公众的焦点。然而，他不会成为一个独裁者：权力在俄罗斯政府高级官员组成的互相竞争的集团之间分配，这些官员会效忠总统，但并非绝对忠诚。

Progress on a Kyoto replacement?

《京都议定书》替代协议将如何进展？

There will be real progress on climate change in 2008, but it will often feel as if the world is taking a few steps back for every stride forward. Although the US agreed at last in Bali to launch negotiations, with a view to wrapping up a Kyoto replacement by the end of 2009, the ink was scarcely dry before the Bush administration started voicing "serious concerns" about the role of developing nations in future talks.
2008年，气候变化问题将出现实质性进展，但总让人感觉是走一步退两步。尽管美国在巴厘岛最终同意展开谈判，以便在2009年底之前拿出《京都议定书》的替代协议，但墨迹还未干，布什政府就开始对发展中国家在未来谈判中的作用表示“严重担心”。

That will be the pattern of negotiations this year, as officials fill in the details of the Bali "roadmap". Progress will be accompanied by recriminations, from the US and the European Union, and from developing countries fearful of being landed with a bill for rich countries’ emissions.

这将是今年谈判的模式，谈判官员们会在巴厘岛“路线图”上填写细节。伴随进展而来的，将是各方的相互指责，其中有美国和欧盟，也有担心自己为富国的碳排放埋单的发展中国家。
What about eurozone interest rates?

欧元区利率走势将如何？

They will fall - but it is a close call. The European Central Bank ends the year in a hawkish mood. Inflation is way above its comfort zone and the data suggest that eurozone growth remains robust. If that continues, the ECB could still raise official borrowing costs next year. Equally, the ECB would be quite happy to do nothing for an extended period, leaving its main rate unchanged at 4 per cent.

欧元区利率将会下跌——但这种可能性也不是特别大。欧洲央行(ECB)在年终时表现得相当强硬。通胀率远远超过欧洲央行的容忍范围，同时，经济数据显示，欧元区经济增长仍相当强劲。如果这种趋势继续下去，欧洲央行可能会在2008年加大官方借贷成本。否则，欧洲央行将在很长一段时期内安于现状，维持主要利率在4%不变。
But inflation should fall in 2008 and the ECB may prove over-optimistic about growth. A weaker US economy as well as the higher financing costs caused by the credit squeeze will only have a braking effect. Another surge in the euro would further curb the ECB’s hawkishness, and who knows what else lurks ahead? As inflationary pressures ease gradually, the ECB will move towards cutting rates.

然而，欧元区通胀率在2008年应会下降，事实将证明，欧洲央行可能对经济增长过分乐观。美国经济走软以及信贷紧缩造成的融资成本上升，只会起到刹车作用。欧元再次大幅走强将进一步限制欧洲央行的强硬情绪，未来还会发生什么，谁知道呢？随着通胀压力逐步缓解，欧洲央行将转向降息举措。
What will Google do next?

谷歌的下一步是什么?
The Google juggernaut will gather even more momentum, pushing its share of the search business up to 75 per cent worldwide, its revenues to $18bn and its stock price past $1,000. Now it has seen off Microsoft and Yahoo and proved it can grow exponentially without missing a beat, a severe econ-omic downturn remains the main threat.
人们对谷歌的崇拜将继续升温，从而使这家搜索公司的全球市场份额升至75%，营收达到180亿美元，股价超过1000美元。目前，该公司已经超越了微软(Microsoft)和雅虎(Yahoo)，并证明其有能力继续实现几何级的增长。经济严重低迷仍然是主要威胁。
By the end of the year Google’s massive, and spreading, influence should start to force a realignment of the online landscape. The first result: a merger dance between Microsoft, Yahoo, AOL and Ebay, as the rival search, advertising and e-commerce companies adjust to deal with the new reality. But Google’s Achilles heel will also be revealed this year as official concerns over online privacy reach new heights, with European regulators leading the way.

截止去年年底，谷歌宏大和不断扩大的影响力应当开始迫使网络产业进行调整。第一个结果是：随着微软、雅虎(Yahoo)、美国在线(AOL)和Ebay这些搜索、广告和电子商务竞争对手进行调整，以应对新的现实，这些公司之间可能进行合并。但随着以欧洲为首的监管当局对网络盗版的担忧达到新高度，谷歌今年也会暴露其致命弱点。