从世界各国经济的运行情况看,持续高油价对经济增长的负面影响已开始逐渐显现。2007年全球经济增长不至于陷入衰退,但增速减慢几成定局。受其影响,全球原油需求增速减慢,预计2007年全球原油需求将比2006年增长126~144万桶/日左右。相比之下,全球原油生产能力增长加速,仅非OPEC原油供给增长就将超过全球原油需求的增长。为控制油价下降,OPEC需要进一步减产,这将导致剩余生产能力进一步增加。因此,基本面因素对国际油价的影响已开始转向。如果不发生重大的地缘政治冲突,预计2007年国际油价将回落到50~60美元/桶左右。但如果发生明显的地缘政治冲突,并导致相关国家原油供给减少超过100万桶/日以上,预计2007年国际油价可能会达到65~70美元/桶。但从总体上看,2007年国际油价上涨的可能性要低于下跌的可能性。 The performance of the world’s major economies suggests that the negative effect of prolonged high oil prices on economic growth has been increasingly apparent. The world economy is unlikely to sink into a slump in 2007; however, it is set to slow. Affected by economic slowdown, the global crude oil demand will also slow. It is predicted that the global crude demand in 2007 will increase by about 1.26-1.44 million barrels per day from 2006. By contrast, the global crude oil production capacity will grow at a faster pace compared with 2006. The growth of crude supplies from non-OPEC countries alone will outpace that of global crude demand. In order to arrest price declines, OPEC needs to step up its efforts to cut production, thereby exacerbating capacity glut. Therefore, the influence of fundamental factors on international oil prices has begun to swerve. Assuming no dramatic geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices are expected to drop to US$50-60 per barrel. However, if dramatic geopolitical conflicts take place and lead involved countries to cut crude supplies by more than one million barrels per day, international oil prices could reach US$65-70 per barrel. On the whole, oil prices on the international market are more likely to drop than to rise in 2007.
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