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Conclusion and Discussion This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and forest resources in Sichuan province, one of the largest, most forested provinces in China. And we found a statistically significant U-shaped relationship between the two. We used descriptive statistics, multivariate analysis and spatial econometric method to identify this relationship. The estimated regression results provide a weak evidence of the existence of EKC for forest resources in Sichuan, and the estimated turning point of the EKC was 85,191 Yuan (US$25,056.2), which is much higher than the current average income level in Sichuan. Because of the short time interval of our data (from 1995 to 2000), however, the existence of EKC and the turning point may need stronger evidence. In fact, the high turning point can even be interpreted as that there is no EKC exist. Nevertheless, this study contributes to the EKC literature by providing another empirical evidence for forests. This study illustrated the bias in the parameter estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The comparison between estimated pooled cross-sectional model and first-differenced model shows that all fixed effects need to be controlled to get more precise estimation. The study also illustrated the importance of taking into account of spatial correlation in land use data. By employing a spatial error model, we estimated the relationship between economic growth and the forest cover change with more precision. The sign, significance and magnitude of our estimated coefficients changed, meaning that without accounting for spatial effects we would have over or under estimated the effects of certain explanatory variables on the forest cover change. Most importantly, our findings, especially the U-shaped relationship between forest resources and GDP per capita with the high turning point, suggest that Sichuan is still in the first stage of economic growth in current, and appropriate forest policies incorporate policy for growth need to be implemented in order to slow down or to reverse the trend of declining forest while also continuing to achieve economic growth.
备注:译文将作为学术性论文的一部分,内容涉及空间计量经济学
完成本项翻译奖励:500译点 | 中文->英文 | 字数:字/词 | 阅读数: 1307

提交时间:2008/5/29 13:31:00

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结果与讨论 本论文研究中国森林面积最大省份之-----四川省,在经济发展和森林资源之间的相互关系。我们发现在两者之间存在着明显的U形曲线关系。我们运用描述统计学,多变量分析和空间计量经济学方法验证了这种关系。这个衰退的结果为在四川省存在库兹涅茨曲线提供了较弱的证据,库兹涅茨曲线的最高拐点值是85,191元(25,056.2元),此值比四川当前平均收入水平还要高。因为我们数据的时间区段比较短(从1995年至2000年),所以库兹涅茨曲线及拐点的存在需要更强有力的证据。实际上,高拐点可以被解释为并不存在库兹涅茨曲线。 尽管如此,通过提供森林方面的其他经验证据,本研究也为库兹涅茨曲线文献尽了杯水之力。 由于存在着未知变数,本研究描述了参量方面存在的偏差。 通过合并表示模型和一次微分模型之间的对照,可以看出所有的固有影响都需要考虑周到,以得到更精确的结果。 本研究同样描述了考虑土地使用数据方面的空间关系的重要性。 通过运用空间误差模型,我们可以更准确地估算经济发展和森林面积变化之间的关系。 估算系数---正负、大小和数量级发生变化之时,表示如果不考虑空间影响,我们将或高或低地估算森林面积变化方面的变量的影响。 更为重要的是,我们的发现,特别是存在于森林资源和人均GDP之间的带有拐点的U形关系,表明当前四川仍然处于经济发展的第一阶段,为达到既放缓或逆转森林减退的趋势又发展经济的目标,需要采取适当的森林政策与发展政策并行的策略。

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2008/5/29 14:41:00

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